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Coronavirus Update for 3/11/2020

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 122 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

As of March 12, 2020 at 00:13 GMT, there have been 1301 confirmed case (up 326 cases from yesterday)s and 38 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.



World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic 

 The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on Wednesday as the new coronavirus, which was unknown to world health officials just three months ago, has rapidly spread to more than 121,000 people from Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

“In the past two weeks the number of cases outside China has increased thirteenfold and the number of affected countries has tripled,” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva. “In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of affected countries to climb even higher.”


Washington State:
Gov. Inslee bans gatherings, events of more than 250 amid coronavirus outbreak

Gov. Jay Inslee announced a ban on gatherings and events of more than 250 people in King, Snohomish and Pierce Counties in an effort to try to contain the coronavirus outbreak at a news conference on Wednesday.


Top US health official: Coronavirus is 10 times 'more lethal' than seasonal flu


Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to a House Commitee on 3/11/2020:

"Things will get worse." How much worse it will get depends on 2 things, he said:

1. containing the influx of infected people coming from other countries

2. containing local outbreaks within the U.S.

When pressed by lawmakers for an estimate of eventual fatalities in the U.S., Fauci said it will be “totally dependent upon how we respond to it.”

“I can’t give you a number,” he said. “I can’t give you a realistic number until we put into the factor of how we respond. If we’re complacent and don’t do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions.”


Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds 

  • Authorities (in China) advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away
  • The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger

COVID-19 infections in U.S. may be much higher, new estimates show

By March 1, 2020, thousands of people in the U.S. may have already been infected by the COVID-19 coronavirus, far more than the number that had been publicly reported, according to a new study. However, the findings also suggest that even moderately effective interventions to reduce transmission can have a significant impact on the scale of the epidemic, the authors say.



SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus case fatality ratio

The case fatality ratio for a disease is the number of fatalities divided by the number of confirmed infections. The latter number is typically obtained by laboratory diagnosis, in the current outbreak via RT-PCR, which detects viral nucleic acids. As of this writing this ‘crude’ global CFR for COVID-19 is 3214 deaths divided by 94,250 cases which is 3.4%. This crude CFR is high: for comparison, the CFR for seasonal influenza is 0.1%. However, as I will show below, this number is not a one-size-fits all, and is influenced by many factors. Please do not look at 3.4% as an indicator of your risk of dying from COVID-19!


California:  Coronavirus: Sacramento County Gives Up On Automatic 14-Day Quarantines

California's Sacramento County is calling off automatic 14-day quarantines that have been implemented for the coronavirus, saying it will focus instead on mitigating the impact of COVID-19.
The change is an acknowledgement that the county cannot effectively manage the quarantines while its health system copes with coronavirus cases. It also reflects problems with the U.S. government's coronavirus testing program — issues that slowed efforts to identify people with the deadly virus and to contain COVID-19.

"With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days," the county says.

Effective immediately, people in Sacramento County should not quarantine themselves if they've been exposed to the COVID-19. Instead, they should go into isolation only if they begin to show symptoms of the respiratory virus, the county's health department says.



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