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Coronavirus Update for 3/1/2020

HEADLINES: 
The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 67 countries (3 more than yesterday) and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

There have been 75 coronavirus cases in the USA.
 
New coronavirus activity in the states of California, Rhode Island, Illinois, Washington.

Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests



 REMINDER:  You can be infected, cleared of the virus and  re-infected.  This just happened to a man in Nebraska.

 OPINION:
Is this the going to be like the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918?

DETAILS:
First Presumptive Positive Case of COVID-19 Identified at Rhode Island State Health Laboratories 


"The Rhode Island Department of Health (RIDOH) is announcing the state's first presumptive positive case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The person is in their 40s and had traveled to Italy in mid-February. RIDOH is coordinating closely with the hospital where this person is currently being treated and all infection control protocols are being followed.
...Outreach to the people who were in direct contact with this individual has already begun..."


Illinois officials say patient has tested positive for coronavirus 

"Public health officials are seeking people who were in contact with the patient to reduce the possible spread....
The state will request that the CDC send a team to Illinois to support their containment efforts.
A Chicago couple was previously diagnosed with coronavirus, and both have made full recoveries."


Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest that the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.

Officials announce possible coronavirus outbreak in Washington nursing facility

 "There are two presumptive positives associated with the facility, one a health care worker and the other a woman in her 70s.
... a lack of availability of tests and strict criteria for testing from the CDC had delayed identification of people with the virus."

Coronavirus confirmed in 2 more Seattle residents
"Some school employees were exposed to the virus after visiting their sick coworker at the hospital. This happened before the employee tested positive for coronavirus on Friday. "

My opinion:
Given that the virus is highly communicable (each infected person is estimated to spread the virus to 1 to 6 people), having a school worker test positive for the virus has the potential for widespread infection throughout the school's community.  Anyone in the affected area should be on high alert. 


Coronavirus May Have Spread in U.S. for Weeks, Gene Sequencing Suggests  
"Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest that the virus
may have been spreading in the state for weeks."

2 Health Care Workers in California Test Positive 
"The workers had been exposed to an individual who is now being treated for the virus at a hospital in Sacramento."

"Public health officials in California have announced a positive coronavirus test for a woman described as “a household contact” of a Santa Clara County woman who was the second in the U.S. diagnosed to have the disease without any known connection to international travel."

Knox Co. man quarantined in Nebraska tests positive for coronavirus again

"A Knox County man who confirmed to WVLT News Anchor Ted Hall that he tested positive for coronavirus in mid-February has tested positive for the virus again."

My opinion:
The fact that people are assumed to be free of infection once and for all after being cleared of their initial infection may cause further spread of the infection as people become re-infected and then spread the virus to those around them.


Comparison to the Spanish Flu of 1918







Estimated Total World Population Infected:
Estimated worldwide deaths:

The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic:


The coronavirus:  Do the math.


Data suggest nCoV more infectious than 1918 flu, but what does that mean?

 

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