Coronavirus COVID-19 Update for 3/15/2020

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 157 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

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As of March 16, 2020 at 01:10 GMT, there have been 3719 confirmed cases (up 88 cases or 31% over yesterday) and 68 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.

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Johns Hopkins professor estimates at least 50,000 people have coronavirus in US

A medical professor at Johns Hopkins University urged Americans not to believe low numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States, warning the actual number of people walking around with the virus could be "between 50,000 and half a million."

Dr. Marty Makary told Yahoo Finance's "On the Move" on Friday that he believes the number of coronavirus cases is much higher than the 1,600 confirmed cases and 41 deaths that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported.

"Don't believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus," Makary said. "No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed." 

The professor noted that American hospitals will be overwhelmed by the massive influx of people, saying most intensive care units are already operating near full capacity.

"We only have 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. We could see 200,000 new patients that need critical care up to 2 million," he said.

My opinion:  This estimate matches my estimate based on comparing the total cases per million people on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.  

Basically, the USA number is TOO  small compared to practically every other country.  As of 3/15/20 at 0941 pacific time that number is 9.3 for the USA.  South Korea has done the most coronavirus testing. It has a total cases/million population of 159.2.  I am assuming they've been catching more of the infected population due to having tested many more  people.  

If we take 159.2 (cases/million) times 327 (USA population divided by 1,000,000).  The result is 52,058.  In California, assuming  an even distribution across states by population, my estimated minimum infected people is 6,291. My estimated number of infected people in New Jersey is 1,258.

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Spain, France take drastic measures to fight coronavirus; Georgia delays presidential primary

Spain announced a nationwide lockdown as France moved to close all nonessential businesses — including cafes, restaurants and movie theaters — in the latest testament to the coronavirus pandemic’s profound impact on daily life around the globe.

Upheaval continued in the United States, as well, on Saturday as Georgia followed Louisiana’s lead in delaying its presidential primary and three states reported their first coronavirus-related deaths. The United States will be banning travel from the United Kingdom and Ireland beginning Monday at midnight, officials said.

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